Does positive basis always mean a bullish market?
No. Interpret it with contract structure, expiry, funding and the reference price.
Align the reference prices
Index, mark and last-traded prices are different even for the same asset.
Separate perpetual and dated futures
Dated futures tend toward spot near expiry; perpetuals use a funding mechanism.
Risks behind a wide basis
Execution cost, liquidation, funding and pre-expiry moves can erase an apparent spread.
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